
In late March, I was in Las Vegas for a series of meetings and conferences around exit strategy planning for business owners. I had not visited Las Vegas in twenty years, and the changes in the cityscape were visible all up and down the Strip and Flamingo Boulevard. The Bellagio has its fabulous water show at night. The hotel Paris has its reproductions of the Eiffel Tower, a French café restaurant, and the Arc de Triomphe. The Venetian has reproductions of Italian art and architecture everywhere. Plus the shopping and dining experiences have been elevated to a much higher level over the past two decades.
The problem? In this Great Recession, traffic to Las Vegas is down over fifty percent. Room rates in Las Vegas are down fifty-four percent from last year. One cab driver told us the reason that many people are there is because of the aggressive discounting being offered—so the people paying full price do not feel like they’re in a ghost town. Companies have cancelled events in Las Vegas because it sends the wrong message of conspicuous consumption during a time of reduced spending and higher unemployment. Many of the events taking place in Las Vegas today were scheduled before the economic meltdown last fall, and even they have reduced attendance.
Las Vegas is also a glaring example of the economic woes that commercial lenders are experiencing. Big real estate development projects are on hold, oftentimes left with an empty construction trailer, some equipment laying idle nearby, and a big hole in the ground—such as the ambitious MGM-financed City Center. Shopping centers have lost anchor tenants, causing the smaller tenants to ask for rent reductions. When the value of the mall drops because of declining cash flows, the lenders have to reduce the asset value on their books.
Nevada (along with Arizona, California and Florida) was one of the states where irresponsible mortgage lending has led to high rates of foreclosures, abandonment of residential housing projects and bank troubles. Housing was a big driver for growth in these states and is now a big drag.
So even though my visit corresponded to the first weekend of the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness), the excitement generated by the tournament was subdued. March Madness is the second biggest sports gambling event in Las Vegas after the Super Bowl, and these numbers were down as well.
Las Vegas is at the difficult end of the boom and bust cycle, having risen so high with housing and plentiful disposable income. It will take longer to recover the activity level which created so many jobs and opportunities in the past two decades. |